What’s the sitch with the Fiddle Class?

Here’s a little thought experiment. What car are you thinking of? Right now?

I bet I know what it is. Write your answer somewhere secure, where I won’t be able to see it.

Then scroll down. Please stay seated as you read on, you may be quite shocked.

You were thinking of a Subaru Crosstrek.

I knew because, honestly, I’ve been thinking about them too. As have many other young professionals, all dreaming about skipping their next Zoom meeting to instead hit the open road in colorful, but surprisingly rugged, style and comfort.

Oooo that rack, God damn. Those curves, that shapely rear… so tight. Go ahead, let your mind wander.

That could be you, accelerating away from your makeshift standing desk that doubles as your dining room table, but in fact you don’t have a dining room because you live in a modest apartment in the trendy part of town so the table you dine at is actually straddling a vague line between your kitchen egress and the edge of your living room making it less a dining room table and more a table that is sometimes used for dining, among other functions.

That could be you, wind in your hair, bikes secured to the back, kayak on top, paraglider packed into the hatchback just in case you come across a nice cliff and a stiff breeze, tucked next to your mountaineering crampons and water filtration system, butane stove already lit, Instagram posts pre-captioned waiting only for the mostly-unfiltered pictures of you and your partner tackling the wilderness with gusto. That could be you, riding in that vehicle, with those accessories.

The Subaru Crosstrek has captured the imagination of a certain segment of America, a demographic of enterprising, environmentally inclined, early-stage adults without children, who are currently thinking about buying a car. This group is often referred to as, “The Fiddle Class,” because they (we) own Fiddle-Leaf Fig plants at an astounding rate, up to 91% by some estimates.

According to the Pew Research Center, people in the Fiddle Class are between the ages of 27 and 37, live in large metropolitan areas, and have between two and six Zoom meetings scheduled each day, with one to two of these spent strategizing for future Zoom meetings. Most of the Fiddle Class make enough money to live quite comfortably, to buy new running shoes when their current pair is starting to show signs of wear, to visit friends (who are also Fiddle Class) living a few states away. They (we) eat sushi occasionally, buy road bikes with the shoe clips, get groceries at the farmer’s market, and have the income to support a dog (and of course a Fiddle Leaf), though most don’t yet earn quite enough to begin a traditional adult life with a house, a dishwasher, and children.

These young professionals are somewhere between middle class and upper-middle class, though clearly have plans to continue to climb the social order as is evidenced by their love of large, long-term houseplants, plants that will reliably need more space every few years.

Which brings us to the Crosstrek. It’s the perfect car for the Fiddle Class, expressing vitality, adventure, and quality, while also coming across as laid-back, as a sensible option. It is a car that says, “We debated for a while whether we should even get a car given everything that’s going on right now, but in the end it made sense for us, and yeah, we sprung for the moonroof.”

The chart below show trends in Google Searches for three Subaru models and two Toyota models over the past two years. The Y-axis represents relative search volume normalized against the most searched term of those included, in this case the Toyota Camry.

The blue line representing the Subaru Crosstrek is conspicuously low, getting only about 20% of the Google search volume that the Toyota Camry got between 2018 and 2020.

Zooming in on just Subarus, we see a similar trend-lines:

Since its introduction in 2011, the Crosstrek has consistently been searched for less than its more senior, and seemingly more popular siblings, the Subaru Forester and Outback. (As an aside, we once again see a large dip in search volume across all car models in the spring of 2020; this must have been a time when people were searching Google with other, non-Subaru-related questions).

So why this discrepancy? Why does it seem like everywhere I turn I see Crosstreks, everyone I talk to is thinking of buying one, all of my dreams involve riding in one, yet they are being searched for less than their counterparts?

The raw sales numbers only add to the uncertainty:

Subaru Sales by Model in the USA in 2019

As this table makes clear, fewer Crosstreks were sold in the US during 2018 and 2019 than Foresters or Outbacks. I have no reason to doubt the validity of these numbers (www.best-selling-cars.com is as trustworthy as they come).

But there is more here. According to this table, in 2018, the total number of Crosstreks sold was about 84% of the total number of Foresters sold. During that same year, Crosstrek Google search volume was only 62% of the Forester’s internet traffic. In other words, in relation to other Subaru models, buyers are less likely to research Crosstreks on the internet before going out and buying one.

Does this matter? Does any of this matter?

Snap out of it! Of course it does. This is all extremely important.

Here are the facts:

• There is a new and distinct economic segment of our population known as the Fiddle Class.
• Members of this Fiddle Class love Subaru Crosstreks.
• There has been an explosion in the number of these Crosstreks out on the streets.
• But many, including eventual buyers, don’t read about Crosstreks on the internet.
• And Crosstreks are still only the 3rd most popular Subaru model in America.

Much of this actually fits well into our theoretical model of the Fiddle Class. This a group of people who are quite conflicted about one of the most pressing and personal questions of our modern era:

“Am I a hipster, or not?”

We all have this thought, on occasion, and most let it pass without much consternation. But, for members of this Fiddle Class, while nearly all of them (us) are definitively not hipster, they secretly, even subconsciously, are trying to behave like one.

They want their expressions of self to be unique, creative, and surprising. For the Fiddle Class this self-expression is most often a purchasing decision or a Spotify playlist. They want to be seen as tasteful, informed, and as not just following a crowd. Of course, the fact that they (we) all have Fiddle-Leaf Fig plants suggests that their actions don’t always align with their intentions.

The Fiddle Class found its perfect car in the Subaru Crosstrek. A bold vehicle to reflect the intrepid lifestyle of the motorist within.

And this is why the numbers seem different from our lived experience. Members of the Fiddle Class who did buy a Crosstrek over the past few years now want to show others the excellence of their purchase. They now drive places they would have biked. They park their Crosstrek on the street even though they have parking in their building. They offer to drive the carpool to their co-ed kickball game, even though they drove to the game the previous week, and the week before that. Crosstreks now flood the streets, a stampeding herd of brightly colored metallic zebra, finding camouflage in their numbers and movement, confusing would be predators. Even though the total number purchased has consistently been less than other Subaru models, it sometimes feels like Crosstreks are the only car on the road.

But there is a threshold some products cross as they become popular, where the Fiddle Class begins to see the product as too mainstream, as too obvious of a choice. The Fiddle Class then become less enthusiastic, even if the product is popular for good reason.

I suspect that is what is occurring right before our eyes with the Crosstrek. Subaru overshot; they crafted a vehicle too enticing. They clearly have a deep understanding of the American Fiddle Class, as their design and marketing for the Crosstrek was so thoroughly overwhelming for this group. But, like Icarus, they may have flown too close to the sun.

I personally won’t be buying a Crosstrek until Subaru makes it look a little more broken-in, like I just found it in a used car lot and got a great deal on it, like they stopped making this model in the early 2000s so it’s actually kind of hard to find.

~ NJ